2024 is three years away, but many GOP senators and governors are already preparing for the Republican presidential primaries. Joe Biden’s presidency has gotten off to a rocky start, with gas prices hitting a 7-year high, inflation rising to a 14-year high, and unemployment increasing. Aside from all this, Biden plans to spend nearly $6 trillion in 2022 for climate change and infrastructure, the highest amount in federal spending since World War II. The economy is eventually going to collapse at one point, which would pose the perfect threat to Joe Biden’s possible re-election bid in 2024. The GOP needs to nominate a strong candidate in order to defeat Joe Biden, and here is the list of the frontrunners as of now:
1. Donald Trump
Donald Trump is currently the favored Republican presidential candidate for 2024. He believes that he was cheated out of a second term, and that he would’ve won the 2020 election had it not been for rampant electoral fraud. His base is still vibrant, as they continue to strategize on how to regain control of the United States Congress in the 2022 midterms. He has released many statements over the last few months, severely criticizing the policies of the Biden administration, many of which he had predicted. More and more Republicans are slowly starting to accept the results of the election, but the majority of the party still want him back in 2024. As per sources, he plans to hold rallies in June and July in many battleground states in order to energize his base and ensure their support. The neoconservatives are a dying breed, as supporters of Trump, who make up for majority of the Republican party, intend on voting them out of office by 2024, so they don’t pose a major threat to Trump’s possible 2024 presidential bid. Many are skeptical about him running again, especially after the Capitol riots, but the way the Biden presidency is going is already making his voters regret their decision. If Trump does run in 2024, he’ll have no strings attached and certainly will not hold back on his attacks toward Biden and the Democratic party. The chances of Trump’s presidential bid in 2024 are becoming more likely as time passes, but one thing’s for sure: If Trump runs in 2024, no major Republican politician will dare challenge him.
2. Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis is currently an unstoppable force. He started his career off with his military service, being active from 2004 to 2010 in the Iraq War. He received many honors and awards, and made a bid for Florida’s 6th congressional district House seat. He won that election and served for over 5 years, until he announced his bid for the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election. Though he was initially trailing behind Adam Putnam in the Republican primaries, he overtook him after Trump came out and endorsed him. He won by an extremely close margin against Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum in the election, and has been on an upward path since then. DeSantis was heavily criticized in the summer of 2020 for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, but public opinion started shifting in the subsequent months. He lifted all restrictions and the COVID-19 cases were still lower than many other states in the US. He started gaining popularity ever since and still has been subject to controversies tying to the Democrats, which only catapulted his popularity. Charlie Crist, who has lost elections as a Republican, Democrat, and Independent, announced his bid to challenge DeSantis in 2022. Nikki Fried is also expected to announce her bid for 2022. Both candidates have been trailing behind DeSantis in polling, worrying the already broken Florida Democrats. None of the candidates put forth by the Democrats are likely to beat DeSantis in the election. This will hurt the Democrats in 2024, as DeSantis will probably run for President. If the Democrats want to stop DeSantis’ growth, they need to defeat him in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, which seems highly unlikely as of now. DeSantis is ultimately seen as the bridging gap between neoconservative Republicans and paleoconservative Republicans, causing Democrats to fear him. The Democrats also fear DeSantis because he has a larger suburban appeal than Trump. Even when Gillum wiped the floor with him in the suburbs, he managed to win the election all due to his rural support. DeSantis has essentially established the fact that he has large support in rural and suburban areas, which spells doom for the Democrats in 2024, should he run.
3. Mike Pence
Mike Pence served mostly as a loyal Vice President to Trump, even though there was a rift between them near the end of Trump’s first term. Pence was always seen as the balancing force between the two — he always remained calm in his debates and interactions with the press, giving him a slightly more favorable view among Democrats compared to Trump(which isn’t a good thing). Pence has spoken favorably of Trump ever since he left office in January, which hasn’t been reciprocated by Trump. He refused to acknowledge the illegitimacy of the 2020 election and accepted the results, a few moments before the Capitol was stormed. If Trump does run in 2024, Pence likely won’t challenge him. However, if Trump doesn’t run, it is highly likely that Pence runs. Polling data shows Trump dominating all the other possible Republican candidates. Polling that doesn’t include Trump shows DeSantis and Pence in a dead heat. Trump would likely endorse Ron DeSantis, as he has been more loyal to him. So for Pence, there really isn’t a path to the GOP nomination in 2024. Even if he does somehow get nominated as the Republican candidate, it’s unlikely that he wins the General election.
4. Nikki Haley
The former governor and congresswoman of South Carolina was nominated by Trump to serve as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, and served for nearly two years. She is one of many grifters that had been by Trump’s side during his presidency, and has lost support among Trump’s base. She criticized Trump for his supposed role in the Capitol riots, only causing his base to hate her more. Haley has openly stated that she won’t run if Trump runs in 2024. However, if Trump doesn’t run, it’s almost certain that she’ll run for President. Whatever remains of the neoconservative base is backing Haley, as she’s been consistently trailing Trump, DeSantis, Pence, and Cruz in polling data. Nikki Haley is being viewed as a modern Bush or Reagan by some of her ardent supporters, which seems pathetic and dumb. The past few election cycles have been very different, but one thing they all proved is that neoconservatism is dead. There’s no major supporters of it like there was in the 80’s and 90’s. If Nikki Haley somehow gets nominated as the Republican candidate for 2024, it’s highly likely that she loses against Biden or Harris.
There are still candidates that are possible frontrunners, including Matt Gaetz, Mike Pompeo, Chris Christie, and Ted Cruz. But one thing that’s nearly certain among these candidates is that they will back off if Trump decides to run. Trump is essentially the ultimate decider on who the Republican nominee is for the 2024 election.
